英文篇名
SYSTEM RELIABILITY METHODS IN GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING-A REVIEW
作者
卿建業、謝宜宏
關鍵字
可靠度分析、破壞機率、極限狀態、性能工程、隨機模擬
摘要
近年來由於世界貿易組織(WTO)明文規定各會員國在工程規範訂定時,應當使用性能設計法以減少對自由貿易干擾,因此性能工程逐漸受到各界重視,也成為未來工程設計的趨勢。性能設計法在國內結構工程界已行之有年,但在大地工程界仍處萌芽的階段。大地工程系統之行為相當複雜,主要原因之一為大地工程問題中有極多不確定性,包括模型不確定性、材料性質的不確定性、土石空間分布之不確定性等。如何在這些不確定性下做性能設計是個重要的議題,也就是地工系統可靠度分析。在這篇論文中,我們介紹目前發展較成熟的系統可靠度分析方法,包括一階二次矩法(first order second moment method)、一階可靠度分析(first order reliability method)、蒙地卡羅模擬(Monte Carlo simulation)、重要性取樣法(importance sampling)及子集合模擬法(subset simulation)。並藉由案例分析比較各分析方法之優劣及限制。
英文摘要
This paper reviews the state-of-the-art methodologies for performance reliability analysis. Due to its nature, geotechnical engineering systems are full of uncertainties in their performance, such as material properties, spatial variability, modeling uncertainties, measurement uncertainties, etc. The recent trend is to treat these uncertainties more rigorously, i.e. consider the probability of failure (or reliability) rather than just safety factor. Five well-developed reliability methods, including first order second moment method, first order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation, importance sampling, and subset simulation, are reviewed, and their capacities of evaluating reliability for geotechnical systems are examined by using three examples.